A Positive EU-Russian Agenda by Lord Paddy Ashdown
As EU and Russian leaders meet in Nice next week for their six-monthly summit, their thoughts will be less on Georgia than the financial crisis and the prospects of working with the new US President. But Georgia is important is important because without full implementation of the six-point plan agreed between President Sarkozy and President Medvedev there will be no start to the long-delayed and much-needed EU-Russia negotiations for a new partnership agreement.
What do recent events mean for the EU? First, it was hugely encouraging that it was the EU which was widely seen as the only game in town when it came to international mediation in Georgia. President Sarkozy is to be congratulated for his swift and successful involvement. At the same time the conflict was a failure of EU-Russia relations. There were many signals in the run up to August that were ignored by both sides. In future, the EU and Russia need to substantially increase their discussions on security issues, including the outstanding ‘frozen conflicts’.
Second, the French plan for a beefed up EU defence policy is right and should be embraced by all member states as soon as possible. We need a more capable EU willing to look after its own security and take greater responsibility for regional security. Apart from a quantum increase in the potential of European forces and in the political leverage they can exert, there would also be huge savings to be made if member states really cooperate on defence procurement. Furthermore, President-elect Obama has stated that he will expect the EU to do more in the security field. (Dependent upon result). It would be an irony indeed, if, having spent the last eight years complaing about President Bush’s unilateralism (which the EU has used an excuse not to get its own act together on defence and foreign affairs), the EU’s bluff is now called by President Obama honouring his campaign rhetoric and seeking a more multilateral approach, only to find the EU hasn’t got the effective institutions to respond to this.
Third, Brussels should pay more attention to its eastern neighbourhood and offer Ukraine, in particular, closer ties to the EU. Why should Ukrainians or Georgians enjoy a less favourable visa regime than Russians?
Finally, the EU should press the new US President to engage more with Russia, a dialogue that has been almost completely absent in recent years. Given that so many security issues concern the EU, Russia and the US, it is vital that Washington and Moscow talk to each other on a regular basis.
And what should Russia do? It is clear that no individual country is able to deal with the financial crisis on a national basis. For Russia, therefore, it is an opportunity to work with the EU and others to help overcome the crisis. The G20 meeting just after the Nice summit should be an occasion to start such consultations. Russia also needs to reassure the international community that it takes seriously concerns about the rule of law. When Medvedev took office he made this his top priority but there has been almost no progress towards the separation of powers and an independent judiciary. If Russia wants to see Western investment flowing back into Russia, President Medvedev must address these issues.
Where does this leave EU-Russia relations? The short answer is a state of uncertainty. Moscow seems split between those who think Russia can still go it alone in world affairs and those who would like to bring Russian fully into the international community. The debate on WTO accession is one such struggle in Moscow. Relations with the EU are another. Many in the business community and the more forward-looking politicians would prefer to continue working towards a strategic partnership with the EU. Most economists understand that Russia can only modernise its economy with the support of the EU. The crash in the Moscow stock market and the large loss of foreign capital since 8 August has given pause for thought. Despite the rhetoric about not fearing another Cold War, both Putin and Medvedev know that Russia could not sustain another arms race and with a falling population, there must now be worry in Moscow that they have the resources even to provide adequate defence of their own territory, let alone engage in adventurist expansionism. But Russia not only faces economic and demographic problems it also lacks f friends. The only country that followed Russia into recognising the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was Nicaragua.
How should the EU react to inevitable Russian pressure and attempts to divide it? The first step is for the Member States to recognise that the EU has a number of strong cards to play in negotiating with Russia. The EU has almost 500 million citizens compared to Russia’s 140 million. The EU is more than ten times richer than Russia. The EU has the largest and most attractive internal market in the world and Russian companies want a slice of this cake. Europe pays top rates for Russian energy and Gazprom gets 70% of its profits from sales to the EU. The EU takes nearly 60% of total Russian exports. Moscow also wants to join the WTO and the EU can help facilitate this process. Russia wants access to EU programmes on education, research and science and it wants to facilitate travel to the EU. Although the EU has no single big carrot on offer like enlargement it has many things that the Russians would like. EU policy must be based on a firm understanding of its common interests and then pursuing these interests with a common voice. Difficult – yes. Impossible – no.
Lord Ashdown is President of the EU Russia Centre