In short I think there is now a real chance that within the next decade – possibly less – England (possibly with Wales) will find herself totally isolated. The “Little Englanders” will finally get their little England.
Let me explain why;
I fear that the dynamic towards separation in Scotland is growing and it is now very possible – even probable – that if Mr Salmond can hold a referendum at a time of his own choosing, he will win it.
As a small nation there will then be many reasons why Scotland might wish to take the option Britain has refused and join Ireland as a fully integrated member of a Europe Union dominated by the 17 ,which they will too seek to join if they can.
As for Europe, even if Mr Cameron makes his bid for repatriation he will simply be refused by the others. Even if “the17” then let some crumbs slip from their table, these will now be far less than is necessary to satisfy the newly invigorated ravenous beast of European scepticism which has been given a huge boost by all this. At the same time Cameron’s claims to exercise influence from the side-lines will be exposed as hollow with every European summit, when his dining partners will again be the few more than the Swedes and the Poles. He will return from every one either empty handed or with too little to satisfy his increasingly mad Eurosceptics. Meanwhile, it will be only natural that the 17, working together will affect changes which advantage them and disadvantage us – not least those affecting the City of London.
The dynamic then towards grumpy separation, fed on anger in Britain, will be unstoppable.
Of course there will be differences within the 17, too. Big ones. But these will be sorted out (or not) within the 17. I Just don’t see how, from the outside we in Britain are going to be relevant to any of these disputes, turned to by anyone as a force who can help, or involved in any way. If you are arguing within the 17 against say dirigiste France, you would seek your support from Germany inside the group, rather than us outside it. Why? Because being outside it we have close to zero influence about what goes on inside it.
Then we will indeed become at one with Norway and Switzerland. I have greater ambitions for my country than that – and these are now being snatched away from us.
I fear the two winners from all this are the Scottish Nationalists and UKIP.